Joe Scarborough Understands Demographic Shift, Will Republicans Get the Memo?

Former Republican congressman and current MSNBC co-host Joe Scarborough has been explicit about how demographic trends are changing America.

As Joe Biden appears to be heading into the White House, analysts are wondering how Biden was able to pull off such a victory. Many on the Right view voter fraud as the main catalyst, although there’s another form of rigging taking place that most are not talking about — demographic shift.

Scarborough recognizes that. He tweeted on November 12, 2020, “2020 Election Lede: Democrats rebuilt the Blue Wall while shattering the Solid South and flipping Arizona. They also own the two US Senate seats in the land of Goldwater and McCain, a result unthinkable before Trump.”

Although Republicans dashed Democrat hopes of making gains in down-ballot races, Scarborough believes that the Republican Party is screwed in the long-term. He tweeted, “Democrats underperformed in congressional races and state legislative contests. At the same time, the weeping and gnashing of teeth over these failures obscured a more permanent reality: Trumpism accelerated damage done by demographic changes and will harm Republicans for years.”

The Morning Joe co-host added, “North Carolina and Texas will fall into the Democratic column next.”

He concluded his tweet thread declaring “Demographics is Destiny.”

Despite how much of a hack he can be at times, Scarborough understands numbers. We shouldn’t forget that Scarborough used to work with legendary nationalist commentator Pat Buchanan at MSNBC, so Scarborough has heard some of the best arguments on demographic shift and understands the numbers. States like Georgia and Arizona didn’t become blue by coincidence. A combination of a white yuppie class that’s becoming more receptive to leftism and growing minority populations migrating to Red states are gradually turning them blue.

Let’s look at states like Arizona and Georgia. According to Pew Research, Arizona went from a 75 percent White electorate in 2000 to 63 percent White in 2018. Similarly, Georgia’s electorate went from being 68 percent White in 2000 to 58 percent White in 2018.

States like Florida are the exceptions to the rule, due to the fact that Cubans are the only Latino demographic that is a solid Republican vote. Their influence in Florida politics, business, and media has allowed Cubans to become major shot-callers in the state, and as a result, can change public opinion at the margins among Florida Hispanics. It also helps that transplants to Florida tend to be in search of lower taxes and thus lean conservative. They’re at worse swing votes.

North Carolina has also experienced a browning effect as well. It went from having a 75 percent White electorate in 2000 to being 69 percent in 2020. What has generally saved it has been a strong conservative electorate and a reliable White vote. For example, 66 percent of Whites voted for Trump in 2020 according to CNN exit polls. The Tarheel state also does not have particularly large, centralized metros such as Atlanta that become magnets for upwardly mobile leftists, minorities, and foreign migrants.

Texas is another curious case. Hispanics in Texas don’t vote as Democratic as their California counterparts. For example, Democrats won Texan Hispanics 58 percent to 41 percent  according to CNN exit data. On the other hand, Californian Hispanics voted 77 percent to 21 percent in favor of the Democrats. The Texan number is still decisively in the Democrats’ favor, but what ultimately saved Texas was a strong White vote for the GOP, which stood at 66 percent according to New York Times exit polls. As long as the Texas GOP receives north of 60 percent of the White vote and keeps the Hispanic vote from reaching California levels, it’s generally safe.

However, Texas may be in trouble in the next decade or so. The state’s electorate is already rapidly becoming less White, going from 62 percent in 2000 to 51 percent in 2020, and it has become a magnet for leftist young professionals and foreign migrants due to its robust economic growth. These are clear demographic tailwinds blowing in the Democrats’ favor, and it’s already showing with regards to Republicans’ declining performances in presidential elections in the last 20 years. George W. Bush coasted to victory by 21 points in 2000. Fast forward to 2020, Trump only won the state by 5.5 points.

Although there is a lot of talk about how Trump did well with minorities, his improvements reflected more of a snapback to averages that Republicans have traditionally made with minorities. Trump’s 32 percent of the Hispanic vote is similar to what John McCain picked up in 2008, where he boasted 31 percent of the vote. Let’s be honest, it’s an exaggeration to say this is a sign of a realignment with the Hispanic demographic. It’s really a reversion to the mean. The same holds true with the Asian vote, of which Trump picked up 31 percent. Curiously, Republicans used to pick up the majority of the Asian vote in the 1990s, likely the product of Black rioting that made Asians gravitate towards Republicans because of their law and order image. Trump’s gains with these respective minority groups were small consolation prizes at best. And they came at a great cost, i.e. the loss of critical White votes in the suburbs and working class areas. Unfortunately, Conservatism Inc. will get the wrong takeaway and justify these otherwise pedestrian improvements for more failed outreach programs and ignore Whites.

A case can be made that the best way to do minority outreach is through pushing for law and order, which appeals to Americans of all demographics. Journalist Steve Sailer has noted that by making the Democratic Party look like the “Black Party”, Republicans could tap into the tribalistic instincts of Asians and Hispanics, who are both turned off by the dysfunction of urban Blacks. However, the GOP would likely shy away from that due to their politically correct nature.

Let’s face the cold, hard and unbearable truth: The Sun Belt is becoming less White and as a result, easier for Democrats to exploit. It does not help American nationalists at all that White young professionals are breaking for the Democratic party at an alarming rate. That said, immigration will only accelerate a Blue shift across America and turn many states into Democrat ghettos. To make matters worse, some states will have nations within a nation after migrants cluster around certain areas and turn them into mirror images of their home countries they Left.

The GOP needs to get its act together and make an immigration moratorium it’s #1 legislative priority. Unless the party wants to become irrelevant, GOP leaders should listen to their nationalist base.